The decline of the 2022 Italian mpox epidemic: Role of behavior changes and control strategies

In 2022, a global outbreak of mpox occurred, predominantly impacting men who have sex with men (MSM). The rapid decline of this epidemic is yet to be fully understood. We investigated the Italian outbreak by means of an individual-based mathematical model calibrated to surveillance data. The model a...

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Published in:Nature communications 2024-03, Vol.15 (1), p.2283-9, Article 2283
Main Authors: Guzzetta, Giorgio, Marziano, Valentina, Mammone, Alessia, Siddu, Andrea, Ferraro, Federica, Caraglia, Anna, Maraglino, Francesco, Rezza, Giovanni, Vespignani, Alessandro, Longini, Ira, Ajelli, Marco, Merler, Stefano
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
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Contact tracing
Disease control
Epidemics
Households
Humanities and Social Sciences
Immunization
Mathematical models
Mpox
multidisciplinary
Outbreaks
Risk groups
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Sex
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Summary:In 2022, a global outbreak of mpox occurred, predominantly impacting men who have sex with men (MSM). The rapid decline of this epidemic is yet to be fully understood. We investigated the Italian outbreak by means of an individual-based mathematical model calibrated to surveillance data. The model accounts for transmission within the MSM sexual contact network, in recreational and sex clubs attended by MSM, and in households. We indicate a strong spontaneous reduction in sexual transmission (61-87%) in affected MSM communities as the possible driving factor for the rapid decline in cases. The MSM sexual contact network was the main responsible for transmission (about 80%), with clubs and households contributing residually. Contact tracing prevented about half of the potential cases, and a higher success rate in tracing contacts could significantly amplify its effectiveness. Notably, immunizing the 23% of MSM with the highest sexual activity (10 or more partners per year) could completely prevent new mpox resurgences. This research underscores the importance of augmenting contact tracing, targeted immunization campaigns of high-risk groups, and fostering reactive behavioral changes as key strategies to manage and prevent the spread of emerging sexually transmitted pathogens like mpox within the MSM community. Mpox cases in Italy rapidly declined following a peak in summer 2022. Here, the authors investigate potential reasons for the decline in cases using an individual-based model of a sexual contact network of men who have sex with men.
ISSN:2041-1723
2041-1723
DOI:10.1038/s41467-024-46590-4