Criteria for projected discovery and exclusion sensitivities of counting experiments

The projected discovery and exclusion capabilities of particle physics and astrophysics/cosmology experiments are often quantified using the median expected p-value or its corresponding significance. We argue that this criterion leads to flawed results, which for example can counterintuitively proje...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The European physical journal. C, Particles and fields Particles and fields, 2021-02, Vol.81 (2), p.1-9, Article 123
Main Authors: Bhattiprolu, Prudhvi N., Martin, Stephen P., Wells, James D.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Astronomy
Astrophysics
Astrophysics and Cosmology
CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSICS
Cosmology
Elementary Particles
Hadrons
Heavy Ions
Measurement Science and Instrumentation
Nuclear Energy
Nuclear Physics
Particle physics
Physics
Physics and Astronomy
Quantum Field Theories
Quantum Field Theory
Regular Article – Theoretical Physics
String Theory
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Summary:The projected discovery and exclusion capabilities of particle physics and astrophysics/cosmology experiments are often quantified using the median expected p-value or its corresponding significance. We argue that this criterion leads to flawed results, which for example can counterintuitively project lessened sensitivities if the experiment takes more data or reduces its background. We discuss the merits of several alternatives to the median expected significance, both when the background is known and when it is subject to some uncertainty. We advocate for standard use of the “exact Asimov significance” Z A detailed in this paper.
ISSN:1434-6044
1434-6052
DOI:10.1140/epjc/s10052-020-08819-6