Overall survival in patients over 40 years old with surgically resected pancreatic carcinoma: a SEER-based nomogram analysis

The aim of this study was to identify the determinants of overall survival (OS) within patients over 40 years old with surgically resected pancreatic carcinoma (PC), and to develop a nomogram with the intention of OS predicting. A total of 6341 patients of 40 years of age or later with surgically re...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:BMC cancer 2019-07, Vol.19 (1), p.726-726, Article 726
Main Authors: Li, Jian, Liu, Leshan
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adult
Age Factors
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Carcinoma
Care and treatment
Clinical Decision-Making - methods
Demographic aspects
Epidemiology
Female
Follow-Up Studies
Health aspects
Humans
Intelligence gathering
Kaplan-Meier Estimate
Lymph Nodes - pathology
Male
Middle age
Middle Aged
Neoplasm Grading
Neoplasm Staging
Nomogram
Nomograms
Overall survival
Pancreas - pathology
Pancreas - surgery
Pancreatectomy
Pancreatic cancer
Pancreatic carcinoma
Pancreatic Neoplasms
Pancreatic Neoplasms - mortality
Pancreatic Neoplasms - pathology
Pancreatic Neoplasms - surgery
Patient outcomes
Prognosis
ROC Curve
SEER Program - statistics & numerical data
Treatment Outcome
Tumor removal
Tumors
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Summary:The aim of this study was to identify the determinants of overall survival (OS) within patients over 40 years old with surgically resected pancreatic carcinoma (PC), and to develop a nomogram with the intention of OS predicting. A total of 6341 patients of 40 years of age or later with surgically resected PC between 2010 and 2015 were enrolled from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program and randomly assigned into training set (4242 cases) and validation set (2099 cases). A nomogram was constructed for predicting 1-, 2- and 3-years OS based on univairate and multivariate Cox regression. The C-index and calibration plot were adopted to assess the nomogram performance. Our analysis showed that age, location of carcinoma in pancreas, tumor grade, TNM stage, size of carcinoma together with lymph node ratio (LNR) were considered to be independent overall survival predictors. A nomogram based on these six factors was developed with C-index being 0.680 (95%CI: 0.667-0.693). All calibration curves of OS fitted well. The OS curves stratified by nomogram-predicted probability score (≥20, 10-19 and 
ISSN:1471-2407
1471-2407
DOI:10.1186/s12885-019-5958-9