Probabilistic Damage Stability for Passenger Ships—The p-Factor Illusion and Reality

The paper complements an earlier publication by the authors addressing the probability of survival in the IMO framework for damage stability assessment, the s-factor. The focus here is on the probability of occurrence of a certain damage scenario (breach), conditional on its dimensions and location...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of marine science and engineering 2022-03, Vol.10 (3), p.348
Main Authors: Vassalos, Dracos, Mujeeb-Ahmed, M. P., Paterson, Donald, Mauro, Francesco, Conti, Fabien
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Cargo ships
Damage assessment
damage breach distributions
Dimensions
Floods
Merchant ships
p-factor
Passenger ships
probabilistic and direct methods
Probability
Probability theory
Regulation
Ship accidents & safety
ship damage stability
Stability
Stability analysis
Statistical analysis
Survival
Tetrahedra
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:The paper complements an earlier publication by the authors addressing the probability of survival in the IMO framework for damage stability assessment, the s-factor. The focus here is on the probability of occurrence of a certain damage scenario (breach), conditional on its dimensions and location (centre and port or starboard side), the p-factor. Pertinent assumptions and limitations are explained, following its evolution for specific application to passenger ships. Attempts to provide analytical descriptions of the damage breach distributions as tetrahedra shapes positioned along the ship length whilst accounting for changes in ship geometry, structural arrangements, and subdivision for consumption by the wider profession has led to misconceptions and misunderstandings of what exactly the p-factor is in the context of probabilistic damage stability calculations. This is evidenced by the fact that the same original damage breach distributions, derived in Project HARDER, based on largely cargo ships with the age spread over the last three decades of the previous century, are still being used today for all ship types, including modern passenger ships. Filling this gap, a new database for passenger ships developed in the EC-funded Project FLARE, is briefly presented, leading to new damage breach distributions specifically for passenger ships. It is believed that this paper will throw considerable light in enhancing understanding on the p-factor, which has been cluttered with unnecessary complexity from the outset.
ISSN:2077-1312
2077-1312
DOI:10.3390/jmse10030348