MONTE CARLO TECHNIQUES APPLIED TO PERT NETWORKS

PERT is an analytical procedure used by management to plan, coordinate and control work projects. PERT has only recently been formalized into a usable system. One of the more important features of PERT is its general applicability for almost all projects. It provides management important decision ma...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: McGowan,Lawrence Lee
Format: Report
Language:English
Subjects:
DIGITAL COMPUTERS
FACTOR ANALYSIS
IBM 709 COMPUTERS
MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL
MONTE CARLO METHOD
NETWORKS
PERT
PROBABILITY
SIMULATION
STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTIONS
TIME STUDIES
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Summary:PERT is an analytical procedure used by management to plan, coordinate and control work projects. PERT has only recently been formalized into a usable system. One of the more important features of PERT is its general applicability for almost all projects. It provides management important decision making information such as expected completion time, a list of possible bottlenecks and where they will occur, and a method of allocating manpower to achieve the best results. PERT can also be adapted easily to computer applications. This thesis will investigate two areas where present procedures are suspected to produce incorrect results. It will first simulate the conditions that would exist if the project were actually accomplished. By comparing two hundred such simulations with the usually derived PERT solution, it will be possible to see what bias exists in the present system. A source of this bias will be investigated in detail to determine just how accurate the PERT solution is and what steps can be taken to improve its results. A second investigation will be undertaken to discover possible effects on the solution through the use of the approximate PERT solution formulas.