Virus Genomes Reveal the Factors that Spread and Sustained the West African Ebola Epidemic

The 2013-2016 epidemic of Ebola virus disease in West Africa was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Extensive collaborative sequencing projects have produced a comprehensive collection of Ebola virus genomes, representing over 5 of known cases, unprecedented for a single epidemic. In t...

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Main Authors: Dudas, Gytis, Ladner,Jason, Carvalho,Luiz M, Bedford,Trevor, Tatem,Andrew J, Baele,Guy, Faria,Nuno, Park,Daniel J, Arias,Armando, Asogun,Danny, Bielejec,Filip, Caddy,Sarah, Cotten,Matt, Dambrozio,Jonathan, Dellicour,Simon, Di Caro,Antonino, Diclaro,Joseph II W, Duraffour,Sophie, Elmore,Mike, Fakoli,Lawrence
Format: Report
Language:English
Subjects:
biology
biomedical research
digital data
disease outbreaks
EBOLA VIRUS
ebov(Ebola virus)
epidemiology
evd(Ebola virus disease)
Genetic Engineering and Molecular Biology
genetics
GENOME
GLM(generalized linear model)
Guinea
health services
infectious diseases
Liberia
Makona variant
mcmc(Markov chain Monte Carlo)
Microbiology
monte carlo method
probability
public health
rna viruses
Sierra Leone
virus diseases
viruses
West African Ebola epidemic
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Summary:The 2013-2016 epidemic of Ebola virus disease in West Africa was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Extensive collaborative sequencing projects have produced a comprehensive collection of Ebola virus genomes, representing over 5 of known cases, unprecedented for a single epidemic. In the first comprehensive analysis of this entire collection, we reconstruct a detailed history of migration, proliferation and decline of the virus throughout the region. We test the association of geographical, climatic, administrative, demographic and cultural factors with viral movement between administrative regions. We identify a classic gravity model as the core dynamic, with more intense migration between larger population centers particularly when geographically close. Notably, we show that despite a strong attenuating effect of border closures on international dispersal, localized cross-border transmission had already set the seeds for an international epidemic, rendering these measures relatively ineffective in curbing the epidemic. Finally, we use this empirical evidence to address why the epidemic did not spread into neighboring countries, showing that although these regions were susceptible to developing significant outbreaks, they were also at lower risk of viral introductions. Nature, 544, 01 Jan 0001, 01 Jan 0001,