Preliminary Study of Computer Modeling of the Dynamic Fuel Conditions in Weapon System Vulnerability Analysis

This report presents the results of a study to develop a dynamic model of the vulnerability of an aircraft fuel system to the threats posed by hostile weapons. A Monte Carlo model was developed to calculate the probability of hit along segments of a specified flight profile at each point where a spe...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Dloogatch, M A, Doane, W R, Hewett, P C
Format: Report
Language:English
Subjects:
ACHIEVEMENT TESTS
AIR
Aircraft
AIRCRAFT FIRES
AZIMUTH
Computer Programming and Software
COMPUTER PROGRAMS
COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION
DYNAMIC RESPONSE
ELEVATION
ENEMY
EVAPORATION
EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN
EXPLOSION EFFECTS
FLIGHT PATHS
FORTRAN
FUEL SYSTEMS
FUEL TANKS
FUELS
HEAT TRANSFER
HIT PROBABILITIES
LEAKAGE(FLUID)
LIQUIDS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
MONTE CARLO METHOD
OUTGASSING
OVERPRESSURE
THREAT EVALUATION
TRAJECTORIES
VENTING
VULNERABILITY
WARHEADS
WEAPONS EFFECTS
Well-stirred fuel tank model
WSFT computer program
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Summary:This report presents the results of a study to develop a dynamic model of the vulnerability of an aircraft fuel system to the threats posed by hostile weapons. A Monte Carlo model was developed to calculate the probability of hit along segments of a specified flight profile at each point where a specified weapon system could pose a threat to the fuel system. An Air Force developed computer model (Well-Stirred Fuel Tank Model) is used to compute fuel state in each fuel tank under study at increments along the flight path. These are used as inputs to the Monte Carlo model. Given that a hit takes place, the probable trajectories (liquid-air, liquid-liquid, and air-air) are calculated, and the probabilities of lethal outcomes (explosion, internal fire, external fire, leak) are computed. The model ranks the most likely events, and a hazard index is generated which portrays the most important threats to the fuel system on the specified flight path. The resulting model gives an improved measure of the impact of fuel state on the vulnerability of a fuel system on aircraft vulnerability. It does not incorporate consideration of the effects of fuel slosh, vibration, or vent geometry. Further refinement and development is recommended.