Strategic Analysis as Though Nonsuperpowers Matter

Military strategy analysis seldom treats nonsuperpower behavior except in the simplest fashion. This obscures real uncertainty and disagreement about nonsuperpower roles in future armed conflict between superpowers. The study asks if a more dynamic treatment of nonsuperpower behavior in strategic an...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Schwabe,William
Format: Report
Language:English
Subjects:
Behavior
Computer applications
Computer programming
Computer Programming and Software
Decision making
Feasibility studies
Game theory
Interactions
Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics
Military strategy
Policies
Problem solving
Scenarios
Strategic analysis
Superpowers
Third world
War games
World powers
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Summary:Military strategy analysis seldom treats nonsuperpower behavior except in the simplest fashion. This obscures real uncertainty and disagreement about nonsuperpower roles in future armed conflict between superpowers. The study asks if a more dynamic treatment of nonsuperpower behavior in strategic analysis is feasible and desirable. It describes a rule-based nonsuperpower simulation and results of gaming several scenarios. The analysis reveals possible interactions between superpower and nonsuperpower decision making potentially affecting deterrence stability, military performance, and alliance cohesion. It concludes that strategic analysis can and should consider nonsuperpower behavior as important independent variables. (Author)