The Economic Benefits of Predicting Job Performance

This report examines the adequacy of the present ASVAB aptitude area composites. A utility analysis provides productivity gains in dollars-valued terms attributable to changes in the ASVAB job entry standards and assignment procedures. Realistic estimates of costs and benefits of alternative manpowe...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Zeidner, Joseph, Johnson, Cecil D
Format: Report
Language:English
Subjects:
APTITUDES
BENEFITS
COST ANALYSIS
Economics and Cost Analysis
ENLISTED PERSONNEL
FISCAL YEAR 90
FORECASTING
JOB ANALYSIS
LPN-IDA-T-D2-435
MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS
MILITARY PERSONNEL
PERFORMANCE(HUMAN)
Personnel Management and Labor Relations
PERSONNEL SELECTION
SBI1
SKILLS
UTILITY ANALYSIS
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Summary:This report examines the adequacy of the present ASVAB aptitude area composites. A utility analysis provides productivity gains in dollars-valued terms attributable to changes in the ASVAB job entry standards and assignment procedures. Realistic estimates of costs and benefits of alternative manpower selection and classification policies are needed to provide military policymakers with rational choices in allocating scarce resources among strategies. Using least squares estimates of performance in each job family in place of operational aptitude composites for initial assignment increases mean predicted performance 0.143 standard deviation units over the current selection and assignment process, a present net value gain of over $260 million each year. Simulation results show that the present aptitude area composites are of limited value, but there is considerable classification efficiency potentially obtainable from the present ASVAB if it is used in accordance with differential assignment principles. A set of recommendations for proposed changes in the operational use of the ASVAB over a five-year period is made on the basis of simulation results, prior research findings and psychometric theory. Although the analysis was conducted in the Army context, the recommendations are applicable to all services. A series of ongoing research efforts expressly designed to increase further the potential selection and classification efficiency of the ASVAB are detailed.