Risk Analysis for Aging Aircraft Fleets. Volume 1: Analysis

This report presents a detailed description of the computer programs Probability of Fracture (PROF), which was written to quantify structural risks associated with the timing of inspection, replacement, and retirement decisions for aging fleets of aircraft. The programmed methodology calculates the...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Berens, Alan P, Hovey, Peter W, Skinn, Donald A
Format: Report
Language:English
Subjects:
AGING(MATERIALS)
Aircraft
AIRCRAFT MAINTENANCE
AIRCRAFT STRUCTURES
COMPUTER PROGRAMS
COSTS
CRACKS
CYCLES
DAMAGE
ENVIRONMENTS
FATIGUE
FRACTURE(MECHANICS)
INSPECTION
INTENSITY
Mechanics
METHODOLOGY
PE62201F
POPULATION
PROBABILITY
REGIONS
RELIABILITY
REPAIR
REPLACEMENT
RETIREMENT
RISK
SAFETY
SPECTRA
STRUCTURES
SURVEYS
TRACKING
WUWL24010706
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Summary:This report presents a detailed description of the computer programs Probability of Fracture (PROF), which was written to quantify structural risks associated with the timing of inspection, replacement, and retirement decisions for aging fleets of aircraft. The programmed methodology calculates the history of a growing population of metallic fatigue cracks in zones of equivalent stress experience in the fleet. It accounts for inspection uncertainty and the repair of cracks that are detected. The risk assessment addresses both safety and durability. Safety is quantified in terms of the probability of a fracture resulting from the maximum load in a flight exceeding the critical stress intensity factor. Durability is quantified in terms of the expected number and sizes of the cracks to be detected and repaired at each inspection/maintenance cycle and the expected cost of these repairs. The input to the program is obtainable from existing damage tolerance analyses, individual aircraft tracking histories, loads/environment spectra surveys and maintenance data files. Aging Aircraft, Aircraft Structures, Risk Analysis, Reliability.