Risk Advised Course of Action (COA) Analysis

• Main Authors: Courand, Gregg, Liu, Wanderley
• Format: Report
• Language: English
• Subjects: ASSASSINATION; AUSTRALIA; COA EVALUATION; COA GENERATION ANALYSIS; COA REDESIGN; COA(COURSE OF ACTION); Computer Programming and Software; COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION; FEASIBILITY STUDIES; HIERARCHIES; HRAP(HIERARCHICAL RISK-ADVISED PLANNING); INDONESIA; INTERVENTION; JAKARTA SCENARIO; MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL; MILITARY OPERATIONS; Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics; MILITARY PLANNING; Operations Research; PE62702F; POLITICAL REVOLUTION; RACA(RISK-ADVISED COURSE OF ACTION ANALYSIS); RAP(RISK-ADVISED PLANNING); RISK ANALYSIS; RISK-ADVISED COURSE OF ACTION ANALYSIS; RISK-ADVISED PLANNING; SCENARIOS; SIMULATION MANAGEMENT; SIMULATION-BASED PLANNING; TEST AND EVALUATION; VOICE(VALUE OF INFORMED CONTROL OVER EVENTS); WAR GAMES; WUAFRL459SN604

The purpose of this project is to demonstrate the feasibility and value of Synergia's experimental Risk-Advised Planning (RAP) technology. This technology embodies an analytical tool called Value of Informed Control over Events (VOICE). VOICE manages simulation-based analysis for COA development and assessment. RAP integrates human systems modeling tools to develop causal conditions and trajectories for projected COA execution, with VOICE decision-theoretic tools to assess and comparatively evaluate candidate COAs. The results of VOICE guide COA design/redesign, and circumscribe whatever information gathering and human systems modeling may be required. The value of the experimental VOICE technology was successfully demonstrated as a formal mechanism for managing the potentially unbounded combinatory complexity of simulation-based planning. VOICE clearly identifies the most important causal variables in a COA. It sharply circumscribes the simulation studies that are required to establish the kinds and frequency of outcomes pertinent to COA evaluation and redesign. The authors illustrate RAP's operation on a simulation scenario -- the Jakarta scenario -- that was developed under the Joint Semi-Automated Forces (JSAF) environment. The Jakarta scenario consists of a series of events following the assassination of the Indonesian president and key government leaders that ultimately leads to a military intervention of the Australian forces (blue forces) on Indonesia (red forces.) First, they describe their revised version of the Jakarta scenario and use it as background to illustrate the complexities associated with the development of plans and the design of simulation studies. Then, they summarize the technology and methods employed in this demonstration, including the VOICE technology and the H-RAP method. Next, they present the demonstration itself; they describe each step of their hierarchical planning approach as they apply it to the Jakarta scenario. The original document contains color images.