Setting S&T perspective priorities in an era of complexity and uncertainty: a case for megacities

• Published in: Foresight (Cambridge) 2024-03, Vol.26 (2), p.365-391
• Main Authors: Chulok, Alexander, Kotsemir, Maxim, Radomirova, Yadviga, Shashnov, Sergey
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Big Data; Citations; Cities; Clusters; Complexity; Composite materials; Construction industry; Data analysis; Decision making; Design factors; Empirical analysis; Energy consumption; GDP; Gross Domestic Product; Indexes; Infrastructure; Innovations; Literature reviews; Megacities; Methodological approaches; Methodology; Multiculturalism & pluralism; Niche markets; Policy making; Priorities; Quality of life; Quantitative analysis; R&D; Research & development; Science; Science and technology; Smart cities; Strategic planning; Technology; Trends; Uncertainty; Urban environments; Urban planning
• ISSN: 1463-6689; 1465-9832; 1463-6689
• DOI: 10.1108/FS-10-2023-0215

Purpose The purpose of this study is to create a methodological approach for identifying priority areas for science and technology (S&T) development and its empirical application within the city of Moscow. This research uncovers a wide range of multicultural and multidisciplinary global trends that will affect the development of major cities in an era of complexity and uncertainty, including the inherent complexity of urban contexts, demographic and socioeconomic trends, as well as scientific and ecological factors. Design/methodology/approach The methodological approach is based on classic foresight instruments. Its novelty lays in the blending of qualitative and quantitative methods specially selected as the most appropriate for the identification of S&T areas in an era of complexity and uncertainty, including horizon scanning, bibliometric analysis, expert surveys and the construction of composite indexes with respect to the scope and resources of the research and the selected object for empirical application – Moscow, which is one of the world’s largest megacities. The analysis was performed for the period of 2009–2018 and expert procedures took place in 2019. Findings As a result, 25 global trends were identified, evaluated and discussed over the course of an expert survey and subsequent expert events. Ten priority areas of S&T development were determined, including 62 technological sub-areas within them and the most important market niches for all identified technological sub-areas, which could be useful for the world’s megacities. The results of this study are illustrated using the construction sector. Based on the conducted research and results, a list of recommendations on S&T policy measures and instruments were suggested, including the creation of the Moscow Innovation Cluster, which by the end of 2023 contained more than 6,000 projects and initiatives, selected using the findings of this investigation. Originality/value This research contributes to the existing literature and research agenda of setting priorities for S&T development and shows how it can be done for a megacity. The blended foresight methodology that was created within the study satisfies the criteria of scientific originality, is repeatable for any interested researcher, is applicable to any other city in the world and demonstrates its high efficiency in empirical application. It could be used for creating new agenda items in S&T policy, setting S&T priorities for a megacity and