Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agroclimatic Indicators in Iran

The climate model, United Kingdom Meteorological Organization model (UKMO) and multivariate statistics, principal component analysis (PCA) and hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) were employed to determine the climate diversity and agroclimatic indicators in future climate change. Monthly weather da...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Arid land research and management 2006-09, Vol.20 (3), p.245-259
Main Authors: Koocheki, A, Nasiri, M, Kamali, G.A, Shahandeh, H
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
agroclimatology
air temperature
climate change
climate models
climatic factors
developmental stages
dry season
geographical variation
growth period
hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA)
meteorological data
principal component analysis (PCA)
rain
rainfall
statistical analysis
temperature
United Kingdom Meteorological Organization (UKMO)
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:The climate model, United Kingdom Meteorological Organization model (UKMO) and multivariate statistics, principal component analysis (PCA) and hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) were employed to determine the climate diversity and agroclimatic indicators in future climate change. Monthly weather data from 1968 to 2000 at 36 weather stations in Iran were used to generate climate change scenarios for years 2025 and 2050. The UKMO model predicted a temperature rise of 2.7°C and a rainfall decrease of 12% by 2050. By 2050, length of the growth period is predicted to increase by 16 days, length of the dry period will increase by 22 days because of a delay in the first freezing day and an advance in the last freezing day, and the subsequent increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall. Cluster analysis of weather station data shows that 10 currently defined agroenvironment zones will be reduced to 8 by 2025 and to 7 by 2050. Climate change will decrease geographic differences in temperature and precipitation in Iran, and precipitation will be increasingly a determining indicator in the future.
ISSN:1532-4982
1532-4990
DOI:10.1080/15324980600705768