Intuitions of probabilities shape expectations about the future at 12 months and beyond

Rational agents should integrate probabilities in their predictions about uncertain future events. However, whether humans can do this, and if so, how this ability originates, are controversial issues. Here, we show that 12-month-olds have rational expectations about the future based on estimations...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS 2007-11, Vol.104 (48), p.19156-19159
Main Authors: Téglás, Ernő, Girotto, Vittorio, Gonzalez, Michel, Bonatti, Luca L
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Age Factors
Babies
Biological Sciences
Child development
Child, Preschool
Children
Cognition
Cognition & reasoning
Decision Making - physiology
Event frequency
Expectations
Experimentation
Female
Fixation, Ocular
Forecasting
Frequency distribution
Grants
Heuristic
Heuristics
Humans
Infant
Intuition
Intuition - physiology
Judgment - physiology
Male
Mind
Preschool children
Probability
Problem Solving - physiology
Psychology, Child
Psychomotor Performance
Reaction Time
Reasoning
Sampling
Single-Blind Method
Social Sciences
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Summary:Rational agents should integrate probabilities in their predictions about uncertain future events. However, whether humans can do this, and if so, how this ability originates, are controversial issues. Here, we show that 12-month-olds have rational expectations about the future based on estimations of event possibilities, without the need of sampling past experiences. We also show that such natural expectations influence preschoolers' reaction times, while frequencies modify motor responses, but not overt judgments, only after 4 years of age. Our results suggest that at the onset of human decision processes the mind contains an intuition of elementary probability that cannot be reduced to the encountered frequency of events or elementary heuristics.
ISSN:0027-8424
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.0700271104