Modeling climate change impact -- and uncertainty -- on the hydrology of a riparian system: The San Pedro Basin (Arizona/Sonora)

An assessment of climate change impacts in the water resources of a semi-arid basin in southeastern Arizona and northern Sonora is presented using results from an ensemble of 17 global circulation models (GCMs) and four different climate change scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate C...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of hydrology (Amsterdam) 2007, Vol.347, p.48-66
Main Authors: Serrat-Capdevila, A, Valdes, J.B, Gonzalez Perez, J, Baird, K, Mata, L.J, Maddock, T. III
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
base flow
climate change
General Circulation Models
global circulation models
groundwater
groundwater extraction
precipitation
semiarid zones
stream flow
water use
watershed hydrology
watersheds
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Summary:An assessment of climate change impacts in the water resources of a semi-arid basin in southeastern Arizona and northern Sonora is presented using results from an ensemble of 17 global circulation models (GCMs) and four different climate change scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Annual GCM precipitation data for the region is spatially downscaled and used to derive spatially distributed recharge estimates in the San Pedro Basin. A three dimensional transient groundwater-surface water flow model is used to simulate the hydrology of the current century, from 2000 to 2100, under different climate scenarios and model estimates. Groundwater extraction in the basin was maintained constant and equal to current. The use of multiple climate model results provides a highest-likelihood mean estimate as well as a measure of its uncertainty and a range of less probable outcomes. Results suggest that recharge in the San Pedro basin will decrease, affecting the dynamics of the riparian area in the long term. It is shown that mean net stream gain, i.e. base flow, will decrease and the effects on the riparian area could be significant. The results of this work provide a basis for the inclusion of representative climate scenarios into the basin's existing decision support system model.
ISSN:0022-1694
1879-2707