Modeled regional climate change and California endemic oak ranges

In the coming century, anthropogenic climate change will threaten the persistence of restricted endemic species, complicating conservation planning. Although most efforts to quantify potential shifts in species' ranges use global climate model (GCM) output, regional climate model (RCM) output m...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS 2005-11, Vol.102 (45), p.16281-16286
Main Authors: Kueppers, L.M, Snyder, M.A, Sloan, L.C, Zavaleta, E.S, Fulfrost, B
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Biological Sciences
California
Climate
Climate change
Climate models
Conservation
Conservation of Natural Resources
Discriminants
Ecology
Endemic species
General Circulation Models
geographical distribution
Global climate models
Habitat conservation
Habitats
Modeling
Models, Theoretical
Physical Sciences
phytogeography
plant ecology
Precipitation
Quercus - growth & development
Quercus douglasii
Quercus lobata
Regional Climate Models
simulation models
Trees
Valleys
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Summary:In the coming century, anthropogenic climate change will threaten the persistence of restricted endemic species, complicating conservation planning. Although most efforts to quantify potential shifts in species' ranges use global climate model (GCM) output, regional climate model (RCM) output may be better suited to predicting shifts by restricted species, particularly in regions with complex topography or other regionally important climate-forcing factors. Using a RCM-based future climate scenario, we found that potential ranges of two California endemic oaks, Quercus douglasii and Quercus lobata, shrink considerably (to 59% and 54% of modern potential range sizes, respectively) and shift northward. This result is markedly different from that obtained by using a comparable GCM-based scenario, under which these species retain 81% and 73% of their modern potential range sizes, respectively. The difference between RCM- and GCM-based scenarios is due to greater warming and larger precipitation decreases during the growing season predicted by the RCM in these species' potential ranges. Based on the modeled regional climate change,
ISSN:0027-8424
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.0501427102