Identifying external influences on global precipitation

Changes in global (ocean and land) precipitation are among the most important and least well-understood consequences of climate change. Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are thought to affect the zonal-mean distribution of precipitation through two basic mechanisms. First, increasing temperat...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS 2013-11, Vol.110 (48), p.19301-19306
Main Authors: Marvel, Kate, Bonfils, Céline
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Atmospheric circulation
Climate Change
Climate models
Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change
Databases, Factual
Earth, ocean, space
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Exact sciences and technology
External geophysics
Global climate models
Greenhouse gases
Human Activities
Humans
Meteorology
Modeling
Models, Theoretical
Oceans
Ozone depletion
Physical Sciences
Precipitation
Rain
Thermodynamics
Time series
Water cycle
Water in the atmosphere (humidity, clouds, evaporation, precipitation)
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Summary:Changes in global (ocean and land) precipitation are among the most important and least well-understood consequences of climate change. Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are thought to affect the zonal-mean distribution of precipitation through two basic mechanisms. First, increasing temperatures will lead to an intensification of the hydrological cycle (“thermodynamic” changes). Second, changes in atmospheric circulation patterns will lead to poleward displacement of the storm tracks and subtropical dry zones and to a widening of the tropical belt (“dynamic” changes). We demonstrate that both these changes are occurring simultaneously in global precipitation, that this behavior cannot be explained by internal variability alone, and that external influences are responsible for the observed precipitation changes. Whereas existing model experiments are not of sufficient length to differentiate between natural and anthropogenic forcing terms at the 95% confidence level, we present evidence that the observed trends result from human activities.
ISSN:0027-8424
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.1314382110