Implications of forecasting farmers' market prices for food marketing in an economy in transition

Fanners' markets played an important role in supplying consumers with fresh agricultural products in Poland. Price forecasts of butter, cream, farmers' cheese, potatoes, and onions were obtained using monthly prices from January 1975 to December 1986. Box-Jenkins ARIMA procedure was applie...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of international food & agribusiness marketing 1993-07, Vol.5 (1), p.19-34
Main Authors: Olorunnipa, Z.I, Florkowski, W.J
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
ALIMENTOS
ANALISIS ESTADISTICO
ANALYSE STATISTIQUE
CEBOLLA
COMMERCIALISATION
DIRECT MARKETING
ECONOMETRIC MODELS
FOODS
FORECASTING
MARKET PRICES
MARKETING
MERCADEO
MILK PRODUCTS
MODELE ECONOMETRIQUE
MODELOS ECONOMETRICOS
OIGNON
ONIONS
PAPA
POLAND
POLOGNE
POLONIA
POMME DE TERRE
POTATOES
PRECIOS DE MERCADO
PRIX DE MARCHE
PRODUCTOS LACTEOS
PRODUIT ALIMENTAIRE
PRODUIT LAITIER
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
TECHNIQUE DE PREVISION
TECNICAS DE PREDICCION
VENTA DIRECTA
VENTE DIRECTE
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Summary:Fanners' markets played an important role in supplying consumers with fresh agricultural products in Poland. Price forecasts of butter, cream, farmers' cheese, potatoes, and onions were obtained using monthly prices from January 1975 to December 1986. Box-Jenkins ARIMA procedure was applied in model identification, estimation and diagnostic checking. The ARIMA-based monthly forecasts for 1986 were evaluated using the percentage root mean squared error and turning point criteria. Results indicated that differences among the forecast errors for dairy products were smaller than for vegetables. Limited success of forecasting selected prices suggested that farmers' markets utilized relevant information in the price discovery process. The transition to a market economy requires increased efforts in collection, processing, and dissemination of price information by government agencies and private institutions.
ISSN:0897-4438
1528-6983
DOI:10.1300/J047v05n01_02