Future type 2 diabetes mellitus scenario estimated with a predictive dynamic simulation model/Escenario futuro de la diabetes mellitus tipo 2 estimado con un modelo de simulacion dinamico predictivo/Cenario futuro da diabetes mellitus tipo 2 estimado com um modelo preditivo de simulacao dinamica

• Published in: Revista panamericana de salud pública 2017-09, Vol.41 (6)
• Main Authors: Miranda-Herrera, Magdalena, Gonzalez-Acevedo, Claudia Elena, Gaytan-Hernandez, Dario, Hernandez-Ibarra, Luis Eduardo, Gutierrez-Enriquez, Sandra Olimpia, Diaz-Oviedo, Aracely
• Format: Article
• Language: Spanish
• ISSN: 1020-4989

Objective. Develop a predictive dynamic model to estimate future scenarios for the incidence rate of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methods. A retrospective ecological study was conducted in 2013-2015 in the city of San Luis Potosi, Mexico. Secondary official data from the 58 municipalities making up the state of San Luis Potosi were analyzed. Linear correlation, multiple linear regression, and structural equations were carried out, and four predictive dynamic submodels were developed: T2DM, urban population, inhabited private dwellings that have television, and population aged 45-49 years. A holistic model was also developed. Results. The structural model explains 27.2% of total variance in type 2 diabetes mellitus. Percentage of inhabited dwellings that have television weighs 4.46 non-standard units on diabetes; that of urban population, 2.84; and that of population aged 45-49 years, 156.69. Estimated scenarios for T2DM per 100 000 population for the years 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030 were 1,052.4, 1,413.7, 1,850.1, and 2,351.1 respectively. Conclusion. The T2DM scenario shows exponential growth from 2000 to 2030. Risk factors according to the weight they represent in occurrence of the disease were: population aged 45-49 years, inhabited private dwellings that have television, and urban population. Keywords Diabetes mellitus; risk factors; forecasting; Mexico. Objetivo. Desarrollar un modelo dinamico predictivo para estimar escenarios futuros de la tasa de incidencia de diabetes mellitus tipo 2 (TIDM2). Metodos. Se realizo un estudio ecologico retrospectivo durante el periodo 2013-2015 en la ciudad de San Luis Potosi, Mexico. Se analizaron datos oficiales secundarios de los 58 municipios que integran el estado de San Luis Potosi. Se aplico la correlacion lineal, la regresion lineal multiple, ecuaciones estructurales, y se desarrollaron cuatro submodelos dinamicos predictivos: TIDM2, poblacion urbana, viviendas particulares habitadas que cuentan con television y poblacion de 45-49 anos de edad. Se desarrollo tambien un modelo holistico. Resultados. El modelo estructural explica 27,2% del total de la varianza de la diabetes mellitus tipo 2. El porcentaje de viviendas habitadas que cuentan con television pesan 4,46 unidades no estandar sobre la diabetes, el de poblacion urbana, 2,84 y el de poblacion de 45-49 anos, 156,69. Los escenarios estimados de la TIDM2 por 100 000 habitantes, para los anos 2015, 2020, 2025 y 2030 fueron 1 052,4,1 413,7,1 850,1 y 2 35