Temporal trend in the incidence of human visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil/Tendencia temporal da incidencia de leishmaniose visceral humana no Brasil

• Published in: Ciência & saude coletiva 2023-09, Vol.28 (9), p.2709
• Main Authors: Junior, Claudio Jose dos Santos, Santos, Marquiony Marques dos, Lins, Fabio Celso Cipriano de Oliveira, Silva, Jackson Pinto, Lima, Kenio Costa de
• Format: Article
• Language: Portuguese
• Subjects: Analysis; Epidemiology; Kala-azar
• ISSN: 1413-8123
• DOI: 10.1590/1413-81232023289.15422022

It is an ecological study that analyzed the time trend of visceral leishmaniasis incidence rates in Brazil using segmented time regression by joinpoints. There was a decreasing incidence rate of this disease in the country with an average annual percent change (AAPC) of-5 (CI95%: -9.1; -0.6) and a reduction of 1.69 cases/100 thousand inhabitants in 2007, and 0.91/100 thousand inhabitants in 2020. The Central-West region showed the highest reduction percent (AAPC: -9.1; CI95%: -13.8; -4.3), followed by the Southeast region (AAPC: -8.7; -14.6; -2.5). The North and South regions showed the largest number of joinpoints in the time series. The highest incidences were recorded in the male population, however, stable (AAPC: 2.14; CI95%: -8.3; 0). In the age group analysis, the trend was decreasing for the groups from 0 to 4 years old (AAPC: -7.7; CI95%: -12.6; -2.4), 5 to 9 years old (AAPC: -7.3; CI95%: -13.6; -0,4) and 10 to 14 years old (AAPC: -5.5; CI95%: -10.3; -0.3). It was found that although Visceral Leishmaniasis is an endemic disease in Brazil, there was a decrease in its incidence rate from 2007 to 2020. Key words Visceral leishmaniasis, Epidemiological monitoring, Temporal distribution, Time series study, Ecological studies Tratase de um estudo ecologico que analisou a tendencia temporal das taxas de incidencia de leishmaniose visceral no Brasil mediante regressao temporal segmentada por pontos de inflexao. Observou-se tendencia de decrescimo na taxa de incidencia dessa patologia no pais, com variacao variacao percentual media anual (average annual percent change - AAPC) de -5 (IC95%: -9,1; -0,6) e reducao de 1,69 casos/100 mil habitantes em 2007, para 0,91/100 mil habitantes em 2020. A regiao Centro-Oeste apresentou a maior reducao do AAPC (AAPC: -9,1; IC95%: -13,8; -4,3), seguida da regiao Sudeste (AAPC: -8,7; -14,6; -2,5). As regioes Norte e Sul apresentaram o maior numero de pontos de inflexao (joinpoint) na serie temporal. As maiores incidencias foram registradas na populacao masculina, porem com tendencia estacionaria (AAPC: 2,14; IC95%: -8,3; 0). Na analise por faixa etaria, a tendencia foi decrescente nos grupos de0a4 anos (AAPC: -7,7; IC95%: -12,6; -2,4), 5 a 9 anos (AAPC: -7,3; IC95%: -13,6; -0,4) e de 10 a 14 anos (AAPC: -5,5; IC95%: -10,3; -0,3). Verificou-se que, apesar de a leishmaniose visceral se tratar de urna doenca endemica no Brasil, houve declinio na sua taxa de incidencia no periodo de 2007 a 2020. Palavras-chave Leishmaniose visc