Hierarchical fuzzy model applied to oil trading/Modelo difuso jerarquico aplicado al comercio de petroleo/Modelo difuso hierarquico aplicado a negociacao de petroleo

• Published in: GeSec : Revista de Gestão e Secretariado 2024-04, Vol.15 (4)
• Main Authors: Andrade, Gustavo Bastos de, Cosenza, Carlos Alberto Nunes, Andrade, Luciana Bastos de, Oliveira, Antonio Carlos de Lemos, Perez, Edison dos Santos Conde, Grecco, Claudio Henrique dos Santos, Krykhtine, Fabio Luiz
• Format: Article
• Language: Portuguese
• Subjects: Algorithms; Artificial intelligence; Commodity markets; Computer hardware industry; Computer industry; Decision-making; International economic relations; Options (Finance); Rankings; Stock markets
• ISSN: 2178-9010; 2178-9010
• DOI: 10.7769/gesec.v15i4.3747

Computer trading is currently relatively limited to quantitative trading in paper markets, such as, futures, swaps, and options, ignoring the large volume of physical commodities trading. Numerical algorithms and mathematical methods are frequently applied in the trading of non- physical commodities and stock markets. However, the physical trade of oil does not have a computer program that represents an unquestionable development that includes more complex and subjective factors that traders take into consideration when entering a transaction. Using fuzzy logic, this work proposes a new approach to base a method that can rank oils and the variables, commonly involved in the trading. It uses fuzzy logic to blend objective and subjective factors and brings in two key hierarchical steps to the process. It is shown that this model can also be useful for apprising a decision-making process, improving internal communication, and for the management of physical commodities trading. Here the options of trading are assessed accordingly to its numerical and linguistic judgments, considering even abrupt outcomes. The wide-ranging options, successive filters, and factors evaluation that mirror the technical and expert trading decision making process make it possible for the future application of artificial intelligence (AI) in physical commodities trading. Keywords: Fuzzy Analysis. COPPE-Cosenza Fuzzy Model. Physical Commodities Trading. Fragmentation of Markets. Asian Oil Consuming. Hierarchical Decision Trading Process. El comercio por computadora esta actualmente relativamente limitado al comercio cuantitativo en mercados de papel, como futuros, swaps y opciones, ignorando el gran volumen de comercio de materias primas fisicas. Los algoritmos numericos y los metodos matematicos se aplican con frecuencia en el comercio de materias primas no fisicas y mercados de valores. Sin embargo, el comercio fisico de petroleo no cuenta con un programa informatico que represente un desarrollo incuestionable que incluya factores mas complejos y subjetivos que los comerciantes tengan en cuenta a la hora de realizar una transaccion. Usando logica difusa, este trabajo propone un nuevo enfoque para basar un metodo que puede clasificar los aceites y las variables, comunmente involucradas en el trading. Utiliza logica difusa para combinar factores objetivos y subjetivos y aporta dos pasos jerarquicos clave al proceso. Se demuestra que este modelo tambien puede ser util para evaluar un p