Spatially overlapping salmon species have varied population response to early life history mortality from increased peak flows

In the Pacific Northwest, USA, climate change is expected to result in a shift in average hydrologic conditions and increase variability. The relative vulnerabilities to peak flow changes among salmonid species within the same basin have not been widely evaluated. We assessed the impacts of predicte...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Canadian journal of fisheries and aquatic sciences 2022-02, Vol.79 (2), p.342-351
Main Authors: Nicol, Colin L, Jorgensen, Jeffrey C, Fogel, Caleb B, Timpane-Padgham, Britta, Beechie, Timothy J
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animal populations
Biological effects
Climate change
Climatic changes
Distribution
Emissions
Environmental aspects
Fish populations
Fishery management
Forecasts and trends
Hydrology
Impact prediction
Life cycles
Life history
Mortality
Oncorhynchus kisutch
Oncorhynchus mykiss
Oncorhynchus tshawytscha
Populations
River basins
Salmon
Salmoniformes
Species
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Summary:In the Pacific Northwest, USA, climate change is expected to result in a shift in average hydrologic conditions and increase variability. The relative vulnerabilities to peak flow changes among salmonid species within the same basin have not been widely evaluated. We assessed the impacts of predicted increases in peak flows on four salmonid populations in the Chehalis River basin. Coupling observations of peak flows, emissions projections, and multi-stage Beverton–Holt matrix-type life cycle models, we ran 100-year simulations of spawner abundance under baseline, mid-century, and late-century climate change scenarios. Coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and spring Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) shared the highest projected increase in interannual variability (SD = ±15%). Spring Chinook salmon had the greatest reduction in median spawner abundance (–13% to –15%), followed by coho and fall Chinook salmon (–7% to –9%), then steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) (–4%). Our results show that interspecies and life history variability within a single basin is important to consider. Species with diverse age structures are partially buffered from population variability, which may increase population resilience to climate change.
ISSN:0706-652X
1205-7533
DOI:10.1139/cjfas-2021-0038