Export-led growth hypothesis: Turkey application/Ihracata dayali buyume hipotezi: Turkiye uygulamasi

• Published in: Cankiri Karatekin Universitesi Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakultesi Dergisi 2015-09, Vol.5 (2), p.691
• Main Authors: Kucukaksoy, Ismail, Cifci, Ismail, Ozbek, Rabia Inci
• Format: Article
• Language: Turkish
• Subjects: Analysis; Exports; Gross domestic product; Growth; Least squares; Regression analysis
• ISSN: 1308-5549
• DOI: 10.18074/cnuiibf.226

This paper aims to investigate validity of "Export-led Growth Hypothesis" for Turkey using quarterly data in period from 2003:Q1 to 2015:Q1. Hypothesis argues that there is causality relationship from real export to real Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Johansen cointegration test, Gregory-Hansen cointegration test, Toda-Yamamoto causality test, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) and Dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) methods were used in this study. Findings can be summarized as follows: a) According to Johansen cointegration test there is no relationship among variables in the long-run whereas Gregory-Hansen cointegration test has determined relationship in the long-run; b) According to Toda-Yamamoto causality test there is bidirectional causality between real export and real GDP. This finding proves the validity of "Export-led Growth Hypothesis" for Turkey; c) According to FMOLS, CCR, DOLS methods a 1% increase in the real export increases the real GDP by 1.5195%, 1.5552%, 1.3171% respectively in the long-run. These methods prove the validity of "Export-led Growth Hypothesis" for Turkey. Keywords: Export, Gregory-Hansen Cointegration Test, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares, Canonical Cointegrating Regression, Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares. JEL Classification Codes: F14, F41, F43, C10. Bu calisma Turkiye ekonomisi icin 2003:1Q ve 2015:Q1 ceyreklik veriler kullanilarak "Ihracata Dayali Buyume Hipotezi"nin gecerliligi test etmeyi amaclamaktadir. Hipotez, reel ihracattan reel Gayri Safi Yurtici Hasila'ya (GSYIH) dogru nedensellik iliskisi oldugunu iddia etmektedir. Calismada, Johansen koentegrasyon testi, Gregory-Hansen koentegrasyon testi, Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi, Tam Duzeltilmis En Kucuk Kareler Yontemi (FMOLS), "Kanonik Koentegrasyon Regresyonu (CCR)" ve "Dinamik En Kucuk Kareler Yontemi (DOLS)" kullanilmistir. Testler sonucunda elde edilen bulgular sunlardir: a) Degiskenler arasinda, Johansen koentegrasyon testine gore uzun donemli bir iliski yokken, Gregory-Hansen koentegrasyon testine gore uzun donemli bir iliski tespit edilmistir; b) Toda-Yamamoto testine gore reel ihracat ile reel GSYIH arasinda cift yonlu nedensellik vardir. Bu bulgu Turkiye icin ihracata dayali buyume hipotezinin gecerliligini ispatlamaktadir; c) FMOLS, CCR, DOLS yontemlerine gore, uzun donemde reel ihracatta meydana gelen %1'lik bir artis reel GSYIH'yi sirasiyla %1.5195, %1.5552, %1.3171 oranlarinda arttirmaktadir.