REWRITING THE TROPICAL RECORD BOOKS: The Extraordinary Intensification of Hurricane Patricia (2015)

• Published in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2017-10, Vol.98 (10), p.2091-2112
• Main Authors: Rogers, Robert F., Aberson, Sim, Bell, Michael M., Cecil, Daniel J., Doyle, James D., Kimberlain, Todddd B., Morgerman, Josh, Shay, Lynn K., Velden, Christopher
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Hurricane forecasting; Hurricanes; Observations
• ISSN: 0003-0007; 1520-0477
• DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-16-0039.1

Hurricane Patricia was a historic tropical cyclone that broke many records, such as intensification rate, peak intensity, and overwater weakening rate, during its brief 4-day lifetime in late October 2015 in the eastern Pacific basin. Patricia confounded all of the intensity forecast guidance owing to its rapid intensity changes. Fortunately, the hurricane-penetrating National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration WP-3D and U.S. Air Force C-130 aircraft and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration WB-57 high-altitude jet, under support of the Office of Naval Research, conducted missions through and over Patricia prior to and during its extreme intensity changes on all 4 days, while an extensive array of pressure sensors sampled Patricia after landfall. The observations collected from these missions include traditional data sources such as airborne Doppler radar and flight-level instruments as well as new data sources like a high-density array of dropsondes released from high-altitude and wide-swath radiometer. The combination of data from these sources and from satellites provides an excellent opportunity to investigate the physical processes responsible for Patricia’s structure and evolution and offers the potential to improve forecasts of tropical cyclone rapid intensity changes. This paper provides an overview of Patricia as well as the data collected during the aircraft missions.