Climate risk zoning for gladiolus production under three climate change scenarios/Zoneamento de risco climatico para gladiolo em cenarios de mudanca climatica

• Published in: Revista brasileira de engenharia agrícola e ambiental 2021-05, Vol.25 (5), p.297
• Main Authors: Becker, Camila C, Streck, Nereu A, Schwab, Natalia T, Uhlmann, Lilian O, Tomiozzo, Regina, Ferraz, Simone E. T
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• ISSN: 1415-4366
• DOI: 10.1590/1807-1929/agriambi.v25n5p297-304

HIGHLIGHTS: Warmer regions have the shortest recommended period for planting throughout the year in the three climatic scenarios. Colder regions will be favored in climate change scenarios as there will be less damage from low temperatures. Strategies need to be developed to minimize damage by high temperatures in gladiolus. The objective of this study was to develop a climate risk zoning for damage to gladiolus due to low and high temperature under climate change scenarios projected by the end of the century in the Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. The PhenoGlad model was used in this study to determine the recommended periods for planting gladiolus throughout the year across the Rio Grande do Sul State. The model was run for daily planting dates (from 01 January to 31 December), for different gladiolus developmental cycles (Early, Intermediate I, Intermediate II and Late). The climate change scenarios were from CMIP5: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, representing optimistic, intermediate and pessimistic scenarios of greenhouse gases emission, respectively. Planting dates were considered recommended when crop damage, due to high or low temperatures, occurred in less than 10% of the years. Warmer regions like Uruguaiana and Irai have the shortest recommended time for planting throughout the year in the three climate change scenarios. Plantings between August and December are predicted to be the most affected and are not recommended because of the higher chance of damage from high temperatures. Colder regions like Bom Jesus will be favored in climate change scenarios since there will be an extended recommended period for planting in the seasons of the year that currently suffer damage by low temperatures. To meet demands of gladiolus during the hottest period of the year, it will be necessary to develop techniques to reduce damage from high temperatures in the crop, such as more tolerant cultivars or the use of shading screens on the crop. Key words: Gladiolus x grandiflorus Hort., rising temperature, heat injuries, planting date Objetivou-se neste estudo desenvolver um zoneamento de risco climatico para a cultura do gladiolo nos cenarios de mudanca climatica previstos para o final do seculo no Rio Grande do Sul, considerando a ocorrencia de danos causados por altas e baixas temperaturas. O modelo PhenoGlad foi utilizado neste estudo para determinar os periodos recomendados para plantio ao longo do ano em todo o Rio Grande do Sul. O modelo foi rodado para datas de