Semiadaptative Expectations in Macroeconomic Multiagent Models. An Application to Corporate Financial Fragility Analysis/ Expectativas semiadaptativas en los modelos macroeconomicos multiagentes. Una aplicacion al analisis de la fragilidad financiera empresarial/Expectativas semiadaptativas nos modelos macroeconomicos multiagentes. Uma aplicacao a analise da fragilidade financeira empresarial

• Published in: Revista de economia del Rosario 2020-01, Vol.23 (1), p.65
• Main Authors: Stellian, Remi, Danna-Buitrago, Jenny Paola, Bedoya, David Andres Londono
• Format: Article
• Language: Spanish
• ISSN: 0123-5362
• DOI: 10.12804/revistas.urosario.edu.co/economia/a.8627

This paper introduces a new type of expectations for agent-based modeling in macroeconomics. We convert adaptive expectations, which constitute the standard expectation mechanism in agent-based macroeconomic modeling, into semi-adaptive expectations. This new expectation mechanism takes into account the volatility in expectations in relation to the influence of feelings of optimism/pessimism on the cognition of agents. Semi-adaptive expectations are then integrated into a macroeconomic agent-based model to illustrate how they influence the financial distress of firms. Among the results, we found that firms could limit the extent of financial distress if they expect their proceeds with the highest level of volatility around an initial expectation used as a long-term quasi-reference.