Susceptibility to wildfire in a conservation unit located in the transition region of Cerrado and Atlantic Forest Biomes, Brazil/Suscetibilidade a incêndios florestais em unidade de conservação localizada na região de transição dos Biomas Cerrado e Mata Atlântica, Brasil

• Published in: Ciência florestal 2022-01, Vol.32 (1), p.451
• Main Authors: Lacerda, Heitor Carvalho, de Faria, André Luiz Lopes, Torres, Fillipe Tamiozzo Pereira, Fonseca, Humberto Paiva, Soares, Wesley Oliveira, da Silva, Marco Antonio Saraiva
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• ISSN: 1980-5098; 1980-5098
• DOI: 10.5902/1980509864171

Created in 2014, the Serra da Gandarela National Park (SGNP), is repeatedly affected by wildfires. This Conservation Unit is located in the Iron Quadrangle (MG), in a transition zone between the Cerrado and the Atlantic Forest biomes, and is characterized by a complex mosaic of phytophysiognomies. The aim of this investigation was to compare the performance of two risk mapping models for forest fre in the SGNP and its surroundings, based on two diferent approaches, being one by multicriteria analysis, AHP method and the other a simple probability method, called Hot Spot History, which provided information on the areas of highest and lowest risk and their environmental and human characteristics. Spatial data from remote sensing and GIS were used to simulate, in sequence, the fre ignition, the fre spread and, finally, the risk of wildfire. The validation of the risk models was performed by the Kappa coefficient (K). The results showed that the model based on the History of Hot Points obtained greater accuracy (0.61) than the model generated by the AHP method (0.54). The Brazilian Savanna, Rupestrian Fields and Field coverings were the most susceptible to wildfire, as they are formed by herbaceous vegetations and are located very close to urban agglomerations and roads. The slopes oriented to the North and West were important for the prediction of wildfires slope and, on the other hand, the slope of the terrain was not important to discretize the areas of greater and lesser fragility to the referred ecological disturbance. Keywords: Rupestrian Fields; GIS; Multicriteria Analysis O Parque Nacional da Serra da Gandarela (SGNP), criado em 2014, é repetidamente afetado por incêndios florestais. Essa Unidade de Conservação está localizada no quadrilátero ferrífero (MG), em uma área de transição entre os biomas Cerrado e Mata Atlântica, e é caracterizada por um complexo mosaico de ftofsionomias. O objetivo desta investigação foi comparar o desempenho de dois modelos de mapeamento de risco para incêndios florestais no SGNP e seu entorno, com base em duas abordagens distintas, uma por análise multicritério, método AHP e um método de probabilidade simples, denominado Hot Spot History, que forneceu informações sobre as áreas de maior e menor risco e suas características ambientais e humanas. Dados espaciais de sensoriamento remoto e SIG foram usados para simular, na sequência, a ignição do fogo, a propagação do fogo e, por fim, o risco de incêndio florestal. A validaçã