Forecasting Sugarcane Yield of Tamilnadu Using ARIMA Models

This paper attempts forecasting the sugarcane area, production and productivity of Tamilnadu through fitting of univariate Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. The data on sugarcane area, production and productivity collected from 1950–2007 has been used for present study. ARIMA...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Sugar tech : an international journal of sugar crops & related industries 2011-03, Vol.13 (1), p.23-26
Main Authors: Suresh, K. K., Krishna Priya, S. R.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agriculture
Biomedical and Life Sciences
Crop yields
Life Sciences
Research Article
Sugarcane
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Summary:This paper attempts forecasting the sugarcane area, production and productivity of Tamilnadu through fitting of univariate Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. The data on sugarcane area, production and productivity collected from 1950–2007 has been used for present study. ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model is found suitable for sugarcane area and productivity. ARIMA (2, 1, 2) is found appropriate for modeling sugarcane production. The performances of models are validated by comparing with actual values. Using the models developed, forecast values for sugarcane area, production and productivity are developed for subsequent years.
ISSN:0972-1525
0974-0740
0972-1525
DOI:10.1007/s12355-011-0071-7