Dynamics of land use and land cover in Jari e cenarios de expansao da soja entre 2025-2030

• Published in: Ra'e ga 2024-06, Vol.60
• Main Authors: Beilfuss, Eric Moises, Petsch, Carina, Trentin, Romario
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• ISSN: 1516-4136
• DOI: 10.5380/raega.v60i0.96192

In recent decades, the Pampa Biome has rapidly transitioned from grasslands to soybean crops. This article aims to simulate soybean expansion in Jari (RS), Brazil, between 2025 and 2030. Methodologically, the software Dinamica EGO was used. The dynamic data entered refers to the land use and land cover from the MapBiomas 8.1 project for the years 2000 and 2022. The static data refers to altitude, slope, landforms and soils. The results showed 33% increase in the area under soybean cultivation between 2000 and 2022, with a significant reduction in the significant reduction in grassland areas. The probability of transition from grassland to soybean crops is higher close to areas with a mosaic of uses, and smaller near forested areas. The Dinamica EGO showed an overall accuracy of 65.6%, comparing the real map with the simulated map for the year 2022. It should be noted that the software had greater difficulty in estimating small soybean crops, which were planted on land less suitable for cultivation, such as steeper slopes. In this way, the projections indicate a continued increase in the area of soybean cultivation by 2030, covering 51% of the municipality's area, mainly due to the replacement of natural grassland areas. Therefore, it is crucial to continue monitoring the expansion of soybean in the Pampa Biome. Keywords: Pampa Biome, Soybean expansion, Spatial simulation, Dinamica EGO, MapBiomas. Nas ultimas decadas, no Bioma Pampa, observou-se uma rapida transicao das areas de formacao campestre para lavouras de soja. Este artigo tem como objetivo simular a expansao da soja em Jari (RS), Brasil, para o periodo entre 2025 a 2030. Metodologicamente, utilizou-se o software Dinamica EGO. Os dados dinamicos inseridos se referem ao uso e cobertura da terra do projeto MapBiomas 8.1, dos anos de 2000 e 2022. Os dados estaticos se referem a altitude, declividade, formas de relevo e solos. Quanto aos resultados, identificou-se um aumento de 33% na area de cultivo de soja entre 2000 e 2022, com reducao significativa nas areas de campo. A probabilidade de transicao de campo para lavouras de soja e maior em proximidades de areas com mosaico de usos, e menor nas imediacoes de porcoes com floresta. O Dinamica EGO apresentou uma exatidao global de 65,6%, comparando o mapa real com o simulado do ano de 2022. Salienta-se que o software teve maior dificuldade na estimativa de pequenas lavouras de soja, que foram implantadas em terrenos menos indicados para o cultivo, como d