Impact of Climate Change on the Future Chemical Composition of the Global Troposphere

A global chemical transport model of the atmosphere [the Model for Ozone and Related Tracers, version 2 (MOZART-2)] driven by prescribed surface emissions and by meteorological fields provided by the ECHAM5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPI-OM-1) coupled atmosphere–ocean model is used to assess...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of climate 2006-08, Vol.19 (16), p.3932-3951
Main Authors: Brasseur, Guy P., Schultz, Martin, Granier, Claire, Saunois, Marielle, Diehl, Thomas, Botzet, Michael, Roeckner, Erich, Walters, Stacy
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Anthropogenic factors
Atmosphere
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Atmospheric models
Atmospherics
Carbon dioxide emissions
Chemical composition
Chemical compounds
Chemical transport
Climate change
Climate models
Climatology
Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change
Earth Sciences
Earth, ocean, space
Emissions
Environmental impact
Exact sciences and technology
External geophysics
Fossil fuels
Geophysics. Techniques, methods, instrumentation and models
Industrial Revolution
Marine
Meteorology
Methane
Mixing ratios
Ocean-atmosphere interaction
Ozone
Photochemicals
Physics
Pollutant emissions
Sciences of the Universe
Tropical climates
Tropical environments
Troposphere
Water vapor
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Summary:A global chemical transport model of the atmosphere [the Model for Ozone and Related Tracers, version 2 (MOZART-2)] driven by prescribed surface emissions and by meteorological fields provided by the ECHAM5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPI-OM-1) coupled atmosphere–ocean model is used to assess how expected climate changes (2100 versus 2000 periods) should affect the chemical composition of the troposphere. Calculations suggest that ozone changes resulting from climate change only are negative in a large fraction of the troposphere because of enhanced photochemical destruction by water vapor. In the Tropics, increased lightning activity should lead to larger ozone concentrations. The magnitude of the climate-induced ozone changes in the troposphere remains smaller than the changes produced by enhanced anthropogenic emissions when the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2P is adopted to describe the future evolution of these emissions. Predictions depend strongly on future trends in atmospheric methane levels, which are not well established. Changes in the emissions of NOx by bacteria in soils and of nonmethane hydrocarbons by vegetation associated with climate change could have a significant impact on future ozone levels.
ISSN:0894-8755
1520-0442
DOI:10.1175/jcli3832.1