Occurrence probability of moderate to large earthquakes in Italy based on new geophysical methods

We develop new approaches to calculating 30-year probabilities for occurrence of moderate-to-large earthquakes in Italy. Geodetic techniques and finite-element modelling, aimed to reproduce a large amount of neotectonic data using thin-shell finite element, are used to separately calculate the expec...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of seismology 2010-01, Vol.14 (1), p.27-51
Main Authors: Slejko, Dario, Caporali, Alessandro, Stirling, Mark, Barba, Salvatore
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Earthquakes
Geophysics
Geophysics/Geodesy
Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences
Hydrogeology
Original Article
Plate tectonics
Probability
Seismic activity
Seismology
Structural Geology
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Summary:We develop new approaches to calculating 30-year probabilities for occurrence of moderate-to-large earthquakes in Italy. Geodetic techniques and finite-element modelling, aimed to reproduce a large amount of neotectonic data using thin-shell finite element, are used to separately calculate the expected seismicity rates inside seismogenic areas (polygons containing mapped faults and/or suspected or modelled faults). Thirty-year earthquake probabilities obtained from the two approaches show similarities in most of Italy: the largest probabilities are found in the southern Apennines, where they reach values between 10% and 20% for earthquakes of M W  ≥ 6.0, and lower than 10% for events with an M W  ≥ 6.5.
ISSN:1383-4649
1573-157X
DOI:10.1007/s10950-009-9175-x