From popularity prediction to ranking online news

• Published in: Social network analysis and mining 2014-12, Vol.4 (1), p.174, Article 174
• Main Authors: Tatar, Alexandru, Antoniadis, Panayotis, Amorim, Marcelo Dias de, Fdida, Serge
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Advertisements; Algorithms; Applications of Graph Theory and Complex Networks; Attention; Computer Science; Data collection; Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery; Datasets; Economics; Game Theory; Humanities; Law; Methodology of the Social Sciences; Networking and Internet Architecture; News; Original Article; Popularity; Prediction models; Ranking; Ratings & rankings; Social and Behav. Sciences; Social networks; Statistics for Social Sciences
• ISSN: 1869-5450; 1869-5469
• DOI: 10.1007/s13278-014-0174-8

News articles are an engaging type of online content that captures the attention of a significant amount of Internet users. They are particularly enjoyed by mobile users and massively spread through online social platforms. As a result, there is an increased interest in discovering the articles that will become popular among users. This objective falls under the broad scope of content popularity prediction and has direct implications in the development of new services for online advertisement and content distribution. In this paper, we address the problem of predicting the popularity of news articles based on user comments. We formulate the prediction task as a ranking problem, where the goal is not to infer the precise attention that a content will receive but to accurately rank articles based on their predicted popularity. Using data obtained from two important news sites in France and Netherlands, we analyze the ranking effectiveness of two prediction models. Our results indicate that popularity prediction methods are adequate solutions for this ranking task and could be considered as a valuable alternative for automatic online news ranking.