new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different ad...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climatic change 2014-02, Vol.122 (3), p.373-386
Main Authors: van Vuuren, Detlef P, Kriegler, Elmar, O’Neill, Brian C, Ebi, Kristie L, Riahi, Keywan, Carter, Timothy R, Edmonds, Jae, Hallegatte, Stephane, Kram, Tom, Mathur, Ritu, Winkler, Harald
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adaptation
Architecture
Atmospheric Sciences
Climate
Climate change
Climate change research
Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Climate system
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Economic development
Economics
Effectiveness studies
Environmental Sciences
Greenhouse effect
issues and policy
Matrix
Pathways
Policies
R&D
Research & development
risk
Socioeconomics
Strategy
Tradeoffs
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Summary:This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axes of the matrix are: 1) the level of radiative forcing of the climate system (as characterised by the representative concentration pathways) and 2) a set of alternative plausible trajectories of future global development (described as shared socio-economic pathways). The matrix can be used to guide scenario development at different scales. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic pathways and shared policy assumptions (devices for incorporating explicit mitigation and adaptation policies), are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.
ISSN:0165-0009
1573-1480
DOI:10.1007/s10584-013-0906-1