Indirect Effects of a Policy Altering Criminal Behavior: Evidence from the Italian Prison Experiment

We exploit the 2006 Italian prison pardon to evaluate peer effects in criminal behavior. The pardon randomly commutes actual sentences to expected sentences for 40 percent of the Italian prison population. Using prison and geographical origin to construct reference groups for former inmates, we find...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:American economic journal. Applied economics 2012-04, Vol.4 (2), p.199-218
Main Authors: Drago, Francesco, Galbiati, Roberto
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Behavior
Crime prevention
Criminal behavior
Criminal offenses
Criminal sentences
Criminal sentencing
Criminals
Criminology
Economic models
Economic statistics
Economic theory
Economics
Economics and Finance
Evidence
Experiments
Humanities and Social Sciences
Incentives
Observational terms
Pardons
Parliaments
Peer groups
Prisoners
Prisons
Psychological aspects
Qualitative research
Recidivism
Social interaction
Studies
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Summary:We exploit the 2006 Italian prison pardon to evaluate peer effects in criminal behavior. The pardon randomly commutes actual sentences to expected sentences for 40 percent of the Italian prison population. Using prison and geographical origin to construct reference groups for former inmates, we find large indirect effects of this policy. In particular, we find that the reduction in the individuals' recidivism due to an increase in their peers ' residual sentence is at least as large as their response to an increase in their own residual sentence. From this result we estimate a social multiplier in crime of two.
ISSN:1945-7782
1945-7790
DOI:10.1257/app.4.2.199