Impacts of regional climate change on air quality projections and associated uncertainties

A 2-degree global warming is likely to affect the production, deposition, and transport of air pollutants, leading to impacts on air quality and health. In the present study we use an ensemble of four regional chemistry-transport models, driven by meteorological data from different climate models, t...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climatic change 2016-05, Vol.136 (2), p.309-324
Main Authors: Lacressonnière, Gwendoline, Foret, Gilles, Beekmann, Matthias, Siour, Guillaume, Engardt, Magnuz, Gauss, Michael, Watson, Laura, Andersson, Camilla, Colette, Augustin, Josse, Béatrice, Marécal, Virginie, Nyiri, Agnes, Vautard, Robert
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Air pollution
Air quality
Atmospheric chemistry
Atmospheric models
Atmospheric Sciences
Boundary conditions
Chemistry
Climate change
Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Climate models
Continental interfaces, environment
Deposition
Desert environments
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Global warming
Greenhouse effect
Ocean, Atmosphere
Outdoor air quality
Particulate matter
Pollutant deposition
Pollutants
Pollution dispersion
Projection
Sciences of the Universe
Simulation
Uncertainty
VOCs
Volatile organic compounds
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Summary:A 2-degree global warming is likely to affect the production, deposition, and transport of air pollutants, leading to impacts on air quality and health. In the present study we use an ensemble of four regional chemistry-transport models, driven by meteorological data from different climate models, to assess such changes and their uncertainties for PM2.5 and SOMO35. Changes and uncertainties are compared to the inter-model variability. We find that the impact of regional climate change on PM2.5, averaged over the model ensemble, ranges from −0.5 μg.m −3 to +1.3 μg.m −3 over Europe. It mainly results from changes in natural and biogenic emissions, such as desert dust, sea salt and biogenic VOCs. Statistically significant decreases in PM2.5 are found over southwestern Russia and Ukraine as well as an increase over Southern Spain. Modeled changes in summer ozone levels range from −1.7 to 1.6 ppbv. We find a smaller ensemble-mean evolution of SOMO35 as compared to inter-model variability. We also investigate the uncertainty due to inter-decadal variability and find that 10-year periods may not be sufficient to allow the detection of statistically significant change signals.
ISSN:0165-0009
1573-1480
DOI:10.1007/s10584-016-1619-z