Combining narratives and modelling approaches to simulate fine scale and long-term urban growth scenarios for climate adaptation

Although climate scientists explore the effects of climate change for 2100, it is a challenging time frame for urban modellers to foresee the future of cities. The question addressed in this paper is how to improve the existing methodologies in order to build scenarios to explore urban climate impac...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental modelling & software : with environment data news 2016-12, Vol.86, p.1-13
Main Authors: Houet, T., Marchadier, C., Bretagne, G., Moine, M.P., Aguejdad, R., Viguié, V., Bonhomme, M., Lemonsu, A., Avner, P., Hidalgo, J., Masson, V.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Air temperature
Climate
Climate change
Climate effects
Computer programs
Computer simulation
Construction
Economics and Finance
Environment and Society
Environmental Sciences
Future
Humanities and Social Sciences
Interdisciplinary
Land use
Narratives
Urban areas
Urban development
Urban governance
Urban growth
Urban heat island
Urban heat islands
Urban sprawl
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Summary:Although climate scientists explore the effects of climate change for 2100, it is a challenging time frame for urban modellers to foresee the future of cities. The question addressed in this paper is how to improve the existing methodologies in order to build scenarios to explore urban climate impacts in the long term and at a fine scale. This study provides a structural framework in six steps that combines narratives and model-based approaches. The results present seven scenarios of urban growth based on land use strategies and technological and socio-economic trends. These contrasted scenarios span the largest possible world of futures for the city under study. Urban maps for 2010, 2040 and 2100 were used to assess the impacts on the Urban Heat Island. The comparison of these scenarios and related outputs allowed some levers to be evaluated for their capacity to limit the increase of air temperature. •Narrative scenarios of urban change are flexible and highly imaginative.•Model-based scenarios of urban change allow for quantitative environmental assessment.•A six-step method provides a framework for combining and benefiting from both approaches.•Contrasting scenarios of urban change and their impacts on Urban Heat Island are simulated.•The comparison of scenarios provides insights into key triggers to improve urban adaptation.
ISSN:1364-8152
1873-6726
DOI:10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.09.010