Increase in HFC-134a emissions in response to the success of the Montreal Protocol

• Published in: Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres 2015-11, Vol.120 (22), p.11,728-11,742
• Main Authors: Fortems-Cheiney, A., Saunois, M., Pison, I., Chevallier, F., Bousquet, P., Cressot, C., Montzka, S. A., Fraser, P. J., Vollmer, M. K., Simmonds, P. G., Young, D., O'Doherty, S., Weiss, R. F., Artuso, F., Barletta, B., Blake, D. R., Li, S., Lunder, C., Miller, B. R., Park, S., Prinn, R., Saito, T., Steele, L. P., Yokouchi, Y.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Air pollution; China; Climate change; Continental interfaces, environment; Developed countries; Emission; Emission analysis; Emissions; Geophysics; Global warming; Greenhouse effect; Greenhouse gases; HFC-134a; inverse modeling; Meteorology; Montreal Protocol; Ocean, Atmosphere; Ozone depletion; Ozone layer; Sciences of the Universe; Summer
• ISSN: 2169-897X; 2169-8996
• DOI: 10.1002/2015JD023741

The 1,1,1,2‐tetrafluoroethane (HFC‐134a), an important alternative to CFC‐12 in accordance with the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, is a high global warming potential greenhouse gas. Here we evaluate variations in global and regional HFC‐134a emissions and emission trends, from 1995 to 2010, at a relatively high spatial and temporal (3.75° in longitude × 2.5° in latitude and 8 day) resolution, using surface HFC‐134a measurements. Our results show a progressive increase of global HFC‐134a emissions from 19 ± 2 Gg/yr in 1995 to 167 ± 5 Gg/yr in 2010, with both a slowdown in developed countries and a 20%/yr increase in China since 2005. A seasonal cycle is also seen since 2002, which becomes enhanced over time, with larger values during the boreal summer. Key Points New estimation of HFC‐134a emissions from 1995 to 2010 Seasonal cycle seen since 2002 during the boreal summer Annual US budgets increasing after 2005, in disagreement with the EPA's estimates