Day-Ahead and Intraday Forecasts of the Dynamic Line Rating for Buried Cables

Forecasting the dynamic line rating allows to reach peaks of operational excellence upon electrical networks. Literature on dynamic rating has mainly addressed overhead lines, whereas lesser attention has been paid to buried cables. However, modeling the dynamics of the cable-soil system is quite a...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:IEEE access 2019, Vol.7, p.4709-4725
Main Authors: Bracale, Antonio, Caramia, Pierluigi, De Falco, Pasquale, Michiorri, Andrea, Russo, Angela
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Cables
Comparative studies
Conductors
Electric power
Electrical networks
Engineering Sciences
Forecasting
Power cables
power distribution lines
Power lines
Predictive models
regression analysis
Soil
Soil dynamics
Temperature measurement
Thermal resistance
Underground cables
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Summary:Forecasting the dynamic line rating allows to reach peaks of operational excellence upon electrical networks. Literature on dynamic rating has mainly addressed overhead lines, whereas lesser attention has been paid to buried cables. However, modeling the dynamics of the cable-soil system is quite a challenge, especially when both the day-ahead and intraday forecasting scenarios have to be considered in order to suit the usual operating tasks on electrical grids. This paper aims at providing a comparison among different forecasting methods, specially developed for such lead times. In particular, this paper: 1) develops a new physical-statistical method for intra-day forecasting scenarios; and 2) verifies the suitability of a data-driven method, which is an adaption of the state-of-the-art approach for dynamic overhead-line rating to the case of dynamic buried-cable rating, for both intraday and day-ahead scenarios. Numerical applications based on actual data are presented to validate the comparative study, and the forecasting results are compared with a naïve benchmark based on the persistence method.
ISSN:2169-3536
2169-3536
DOI:10.1109/ACCESS.2018.2888505