Comparison of statistical downscaling methods with respect to extreme events over Europe: Validation results from the perfect predictor experiment of the COST Action VALUE

• Published in: International journal of climatology 2019-07, Vol.39 (9), p.3846-3867
• Main Authors: Hertig, Elke, Maraun, Douglas, Bartholy, Judit, Pongracz, Rita, Vrac, Mathieu, Mares, Ileana, Gutiérrez, José M., Wibig, Joanna, Casanueva, Ana, Soares, Pedro M. M.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Climate change; downscaling; Extreme values; Extreme weather; extremes; Future climates; Methodology; Other; Precipitation; regional climate; Sciences of the Universe; Statistical methods; Statistics; Temperature; Transfer functions; validation; Weather
• ISSN: 0899-8418; 1097-0088
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.5469

Credible information about the properties and changes of extreme events on the regional and local scales is of prime importance in the context of future climate change. Within the EU‐COST Action VALUE a comprehensive validation framework for downscaling methods has been developed. Here we present validation results for extremes of temperature and precipitation from the perfect predictor experiment that uses reanalysis‐based predictors to isolate downscaling skill. The raw reanalysis output reveals that there is mostly a large bias with respect to the extreme index values at the considered stations across Europe, clearly pointing to the necessity of downscaling. The performance of the downscaling methods is closely linked to their specific structure and setup. All methods using parametric distributions require non‐standard distributions to correctly represent marginal aspects of extremes. Also, the performance is much improved by explicitly including a seasonal component, particularly in case of precipitation. With respect to the marginal aspects of extremes the best performance is found for model output statistics (MOS), weather generators (WGs) as well as perfect prognosis (PP) methods using analogues. Spell‐length‐related extremes of temperature are best assessed by MOS and WGs, spell‐length‐related extremes of precipitation by MOS and PP methods using analogues. The skill of PP methods with transfer functions varies strongly across the methods and depends on the extreme index, region and season considered. Indices, codes and associated performance measures for extremes of precipitation and temperature (Tmin = minimum temperature; Tmax = maximum temperature).