Estimating daily evaporation from poorly-monitored lakes using limited meteorological data: A case study within Qaraoun dam - Lebanon

• Published in: Journal of environmental management 2019-07, Vol.241, p.502-513
• Main Authors: Bou-Fakhreddine, Bassam, Mougharbel, Imad, Faye, Alain, Pollet, Yann
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Computer Science; Daily evaporation; Dew point; Humidity; Lakes; Lebanon; Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm; Meteorology; Modeling and Simulation; Modelling; Multi-variate nonlinear regression; Nonlinear least square; Operations Research; Qaraoun dam; Software Engineering; Temperature
• ISSN: 0301-4797; 1095-8630
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.07.032

Open water evaporation is influenced by several meteorological parameters such as: irradiance, soil temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and wind speed. However, dealing with that matter, in a case of measurements scarcity, is a challenging task. To overcome this problem, the authors sought a less-dimensional method to estimate lake evaporation. This technique takes into account only three weather variables: temperature, relative Humidity and dew point. In fact, the approach is summarized as follows: 1- using Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, a Nonlinear Regression model based on Magnus formula is trained and tested to estimate the dew point. 2- a simplified Penman formula provides an estimate for the lake evaporation rate. To test the approach effectiveness, the suggested method was applied on Qaraoun Lake – Lebanon. Upon testing, the regression model exhibited high accuracy with a goodness of fit value equal to 0.99. Afterwards, the evaporation rates were estimated using Penman formula. Unfortunately, evaporation measurements are not available on site to carry the testing procedures. Instead, outcomes were investigated and compared with the monthly evaporation average retrieved from the nearest region to the lake. Estimated rates were reasonably good with a correlation coefficient equal to 0.89 and mean absolute percentage error around 9.8%. At the final stage of this study, sensitivity analysis is performed to quantify the impact of temperature and relative humidity change on evaporation. Overall, the achieved results were reliable enough to carry out a further assessment of the economic impact of evaporation losses from Qaraoun reservoir on the hydropower generation and on the irrigation sector. •A regression model based on Magnus formula was suggested to estimate dew point.•Forecasted dew point was utilized in the Penman formula to predict evaporation.•Using only two weather inputs, evaporation rate can be estimated.•The method was implemented on the poorly monitored Qaraoun lake – Lebanon.•Economic assessment due to evaporation was carried out in the case study.