Application of statistical and hydraulic-continuum dense-snow avalanche models to five real European sites

• Published in: Cold regions science and technology 2000-07, Vol.31 (2), p.133-149
• Main Authors: Barbolini, M, Gruber, U, Keylock, C.J, Naaim, M, Savi, F
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Avalanche; Earth, ocean, space; Environmental Sciences; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Friction coefficients; Hydraulic-continuum models; Sensitivity analysis; Snow; Snow. Ice. Glaciers; Statistical models
• ISSN: 0165-232X; 1872-7441
• DOI: 10.1016/S0165-232X(00)00008-2

We test the behaviour of two statistical avalanche models and three hydraulic-continuum models of varying dimensionality against five reference events. For the hydraulic models, reference friction coefficients are produced that replicate the runout distance of the historical event. The model sensitivity to friction coefficients, release depth, release area and runout distance is also analysed. The hydraulic-continuum models yield similar reference coefficients on the simplest topography, but diverge for more complex paths, highlighting the importance of boundary conditions on model performance. The Coulomb friction ( μ) shows a closer relation to runout distance than the turbulent friction ( ξ). For models of this type, the debris deposition pattern is useful for selecting model coefficients, rather than relying purely on runout distances. The results of the sensitivity analysis are site-specific, again highlighting the importance of terrain as a model boundary condition. The release area seems to have less of an influence on model results than the fracture height and ξ. In general, the models are most sensitive to μ. At the end of the paper, we propose a scheme for avalanche hazard zoning that integrates the statistical and dynamic models, such that zoning can be undertaken with some confidence in model output.