Estimating spatial and temporal variations of the reproduction number for highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 epidemic in Thailand

Since 2003, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus has spread, causing a pandemic with serious economic consequences and public health implications. Quantitative estimates of the spread of HPAI H5N1 are needed to adapt control measures. This study aimed to estimate the variations of the...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Preventive veterinary medicine 2012-09, Vol.106 (2), p.143-151
Main Authors: Marquetoux, N., Paul, M., Wongnarkpet, S., Poolkhet, C., Thanapongtharm, W., Roger, F., Ducrot, C., Chalvet-Monfray, K.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animals
Basic Reproduction Number - veterinary
Epidemics - veterinary
H5N1
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)
Influenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype - isolation & purification
Influenza in Birds - epidemiology
Influenza in Birds - transmission
Influenza in Birds - virology
Life Sciences
Linear Models
Poultry
Poultry Diseases - epidemiology
Poultry Diseases - transmission
Poultry Diseases - virology
Reproduction number
Spatial modeling
Thailand
Thailand - epidemiology
Time Factors
Virology - methods
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Summary:Since 2003, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus has spread, causing a pandemic with serious economic consequences and public health implications. Quantitative estimates of the spread of HPAI H5N1 are needed to adapt control measures. This study aimed to estimate the variations of the reproduction number R in space and time for the HPAI H5N1 epidemic in Thailand. Transmission between sub-districts was analyzed using three different and complementary methods. Transmission of HPAI H5N1 was intense (R(t)>1) before October 2004, at which point the epidemic started to progressively fade out (R(t)
ISSN:0167-5877
1873-1716
DOI:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2012.01.021