Does CMIP6 Inspire More Confidence in Simulating Climate Extremes over China?

• Published in: Advances in atmospheric sciences 2020-10, Vol.37 (10), p.1119-1132
• Main Authors: Zhu, Huanhuan, Jiang, Zhihong, Li, Juan, Li, Wei, Sun, Cenxiao, Li, Laurent
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Annual variations; Ascent; Atmospheric Sciences; Climate; Climate models; Climatic extremes; Climatic indexes; CMIP6 Experiments: Model and Dataset Descriptions; Computer simulation; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Extreme weather; Geographical distribution; Geophysics/Geodesy; Heavy precipitation; Interannual variability; Intercomparison; Maximum temperatures; Mean temperatures; Meteorology; Minimum temperatures; Ocean, Atmosphere; Original Paper; Precipitation; Rainfall intensity; Sciences of the Universe; Spatial distribution; Temperature; Temperature index
• ISSN: 0256-1530; 1861-9533
• DOI: 10.1007/s00376-020-9289-1

Based on climate extreme indices calculated from a high-resolution daily observational dataset in China during 1961–2005, the performance of 12 climate models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), and 30 models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5), are assessed in terms of spatial distribution and interannual variability. The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean (CMIP6-MME) can simulate well the spatial pattern of annual mean temperature, maximum daily maximum temperature, and minimum daily minimum temperature. However, CMIP6-MME has difficulties in reproducing cold nights and warm days, and has large cold biases over the Tibetan Plateau. Its performance in simulating extreme precipitation indices is generally lower than in simulating temperature indices. Compared to CMIP5, CMIP6 models show improvements in the simulation of climate indices over China. This is particularly true for precipitation indices for both the climatological pattern and the interannual variation, except for the consecutive dry days. The areal-mean bias for total precipitation has been reduced from 127% (CMIP5-MME) to 79% (CMIP6-MME). The most striking feature is that the dry biases in southern China, very persistent and general in CMIP5-MME, are largely reduced in CMIP6-MME. Stronger ascent together with more abundant moisture can explain this reduction in dry biases. Wet biases for total precipitation, heavy precipitation, and precipitation intensity in the eastern Tibetan Plateau are still present in CMIP6-MME, but smaller, compared to CMIP5-MME.