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ScenaLand: a simple methodology for developing land use and management scenarios

Scenarios serve science by testing the sensitivity of a system and/or society to adapt to the future. In this study, we present a new land use scenario methodology called ScenaLand. This methodology aims to develop plausible and contrasting land use and management (LUM) scenarios, useful to explore...

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Published in:Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2022-12, Vol.27 (8), p.1-29, Article 52
Main Authors: Pastor, Amandine Valérie, Nunes, Joao Pedro, Ciampalini, Rossano, Bahri, Haithem, Annabi, Mohamed, Chikhaoui, Mohamed, Crabit, Armand, Follain, Stéphane, Keizer, Jan Jacob, Latron, Jérôme, Licciardello, Feliciana, Marien, Laurène, Mekki, Insaf, Moreno de las Heras, Mariano, Molina, Antonio J., Naimi, Mustapha, Sabir, Mohamed, Valente, Sandra, Raclot, Damien
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cited_by cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c397t-7caf5a32cf8c461432c21fbb124eb5189165608f0c5ca23f7b2ec0b54ba6af203
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container_issue 8
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container_title Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change
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creator Pastor, Amandine Valérie
Nunes, Joao Pedro
Ciampalini, Rossano
Bahri, Haithem
Annabi, Mohamed
Chikhaoui, Mohamed
Crabit, Armand
Follain, Stéphane
Keizer, Jan Jacob
Latron, Jérôme
Licciardello, Feliciana
Marien, Laurène
Mekki, Insaf
Moreno de las Heras, Mariano
Molina, Antonio J.
Naimi, Mustapha
Sabir, Mohamed
Valente, Sandra
Raclot, Damien
description Scenarios serve science by testing the sensitivity of a system and/or society to adapt to the future. In this study, we present a new land use scenario methodology called ScenaLand. This methodology aims to develop plausible and contrasting land use and management (LUM) scenarios, useful to explore how LUM (e.g. soil and water conservation techniques) may affect ecosystem services under global change in a wide range of environments. ScenaLand is a method for constructing narrative and spatially explicit land use scenarios that are useful for end-users and impact modellers. This method is innovative because it merges literature and expert knowledge, and its low data requirement makes it easy to be implemented in the context of inter-site comparison, including global change projections. ScenaLand was developed and tested on six different Mediterranean agroecological and socioeconomic contexts during the MASCC research project (Mediterranean agricultural soil conservation under global change). The method first highlights the socioeconomic trends of each study site including emerging trends such as new government laws, LUM techniques through a qualitative survey addressed to local experts. Then, the method includes a ranking of driving factors, a matrix about land use evolution, and soil and water conservation techniques. ScenaLand also includes a framework to develop narratives along with two priority axes (contextualized to environmental protection vs. land productivity in this study). In the context of this research project, four contrasting scenarios are proposed: S1 (business-as-usual), S2 (market-oriented), S3 (environmental protection), and S4 (sustainable). Land use maps are then built with the creation of LUM allocation rules based on agroecological zoning. ScenaLand resulted in a robust and easy method to apply with the creation of 24 contrasted scenarios. These scenarios come not only with narratives but also with spatially explicit maps that are potentially used by impact modellers and other end-users. The last part of our study discusses the way the method can be implemented including a comparison between sites and the possibilities to implement ScenaLand in other contexts.
doi_str_mv 10.1007/s11027-022-10024-7
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ispartof Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change, 2022-12, Vol.27 (8), p.1-29, Article 52
issn 1381-2386
1573-1596
language eng
recordid cdi_hal_primary_oai_HAL_hal_03786435v1
source ABI/INFORM Global; Springer Nature
subjects Agricultural conservation
Agricultural land
Agricultural research
Agricultural sciences
Atmospheric Sciences
Climate Change Management and Policy
Context
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Ecosystem services
Environmental Management
Environmental protection
Land use
Land use management
Life Sciences
Methodology
Methods
Narratives
Original Article
Protection
Research projects
Sensitivity analysis
Socioeconomics
Soil conservation
Soil study
Soil water
Surveying
Trends
Water conservation
title ScenaLand: a simple methodology for developing land use and management scenarios
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