Cluster-based WSA method to elicit expert knowledge for Bayesian reasoning—Case of parcel delivery with drone

The elicitation of expert knowledge in a Bayesian model is a big challenge. Elicitation requirements increase exponentially with the size of the model, making the expert’s task more difficult and generating problems of quality or coherence of the elicited result. In this paper, we develop an extende...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Expert systems with applications 2022-04, Vol.191, p.116160, Article 116160
Main Authors: Ben Brahim, Imen, Addouche, Sid-Ali, El Mhamedi, Abderrahman, Boujelbene, Younes
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Algorithms
Bayesian analysis
Bayesian network
Clusters
Computer Science
Decision support
Decision support systems
Drone delivery
Elicitation
Expert knowledge
Modeling and Simulation
WSA
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Summary:The elicitation of expert knowledge in a Bayesian model is a big challenge. Elicitation requirements increase exponentially with the size of the model, making the expert’s task more difficult and generating problems of quality or coherence of the elicited result. In this paper, we develop an extended Cluster-WSA method using several clusters as an elicitation method. A general formula to calculate the number of information to elicit and a generic algorithm for this method are developed. A selection procedure of some elicitation methods is established and the usefulness of the Cluster-WSA method is verified. The case study of parcel delivery with a drone is used to apply our method, to build a decision support system for diagnosis and prediction, and to make a performance indicator system. •A new Bayesian elicitation method based in a clustering technique is detailed.•A generic algorithm of the Cluster-WSA method is developed.•A selection procedure of some elicitation methods is established.•The usefulness of the Cluster-WSA method is verified.•A case of parcel delivery with drone is applied to validate this method.
ISSN:0957-4174
1873-6793
DOI:10.1016/j.eswa.2021.116160