Potential migration pathways of broadleaved trees across the receding boreal biome under future climate change

• Published in: Global change biology 2024-08, Vol.30 (8), p.e17471-n/a
• Main Authors: Lima, Jacqueline Souza, Lenoir, Jonathan, Hylander, Kristoffer
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Adaptation; Biodiversity; broadleaved forest; climate adaptation; Climate Change; Climate prediction; Conservation; Economic importance; Ecosystem; Environmental Sciences; Forest ecosystems; Forest management; forestry; Forests; Geographical distribution; habitat suitability; Keystone species; Models, Theoretical; Plant Dispersal; Plant species; Range extension; range margins; range shift dynamics; Spatial distribution; species distribution models; species redistribution; Sweden; Temperature; Terrestrial ecosystems; Trees; Trees - growth & development; Wildlife conservation
• ISSN: 1354-1013; 1365-2486; 1365-2486
• DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17471

Climate change has triggered poleward expansions in the distributions of various taxonomic groups, including tree species. Given the ecological significance of trees as keystone species in forests and their socio‐economic importance, projecting the potential future distributions of tree species is crucial for devising effective adaptation strategies for both biomass production and biodiversity conservation in future forest ecosystems. Here, we fitted physiographically informed habitat suitability models (HSMs) at 50‐m resolution across Sweden (55–68° N) to estimate the potential northward expansion of seven broadleaved tree species within their leading‐edge distributions in Europe under different future climate change scenarios and for different time periods. Overall, we observed that minimum temperature was the most crucial variable for comprehending the spatial distribution of broadleaved tree species at their cold limits. Our HSMs projected a complex range expansion pattern for 2100, with individualistic differences among species. However, a frequent and rather surprising pattern was a northward expansion along the east coast followed by narrow migration pathways along larger valleys towards edaphically suitable areas in the north‐west, where most of the studied species were predicted to expand. The high‐resolution maps generated in this study offer valuable insights for our understanding of range shift dynamics at the leading edge of southern tree species as they expand into the receding boreal biome. These maps suggest areas where broadleaved tree species could already be translocated to anticipate forest and biodiversity conservation adaptation efforts in the face of future climate change. Climate change is pushing tree species to expand poleward, which has significant ecological and economic impacts. Here, we used fine‐grained habitat suitability models to predict where seven species of broadleaved trees might expand in Sweden by 2100, considering different climate scenarios. We found that minimum temperature is crucial to predict where broadleaved tree species are likely to expand, with the east coast and inner valleys of Sweden being important migration pathways.