Adjacent versus coincident representations of geospatial uncertainty: Which promote better decisions?

3D geological models commonly built to manage natural resources are much affected by uncertainty because most of the subsurface is inaccessible to direct observation. Appropriate ways to intuitively visualize uncertainties are therefore critical to draw appropriate decisions. However, empirical asse...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Computers & geosciences 2011-04, Vol.37 (4), p.511-520
Main Authors: Viard, Thomas, Caumon, Guillaume, Lévy, Bruno
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
computers
Decision making
Decisions
Earth Sciences
Earth, ocean, space
Exact sciences and technology
Geology
Hydrocarbons
Mathematical models
natural resources
oils
Perception
Representations
Sciences of the Universe
Sedimentary rocks
Stratigraphy
Three dimensional
Transparency
Two dimensional
Uncertainty
Uncertainty visualization
User study
Visualization
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Summary:3D geological models commonly built to manage natural resources are much affected by uncertainty because most of the subsurface is inaccessible to direct observation. Appropriate ways to intuitively visualize uncertainties are therefore critical to draw appropriate decisions. However, empirical assessments of uncertainty visualization for decision making are currently limited to 2D map data, while most geological entities are either surfaces embedded in a 3D space or volumes. This paper first reviews a typical example of decision making under uncertainty, where uncertainty visualization methods can actually make a difference. This issue is illustrated on a real Middle East oil and gas reservoir, looking for the optimal location of a new appraisal well. In a second step, we propose a user study that goes beyond traditional 2D map data, using 2.5D pressure data for the purposes of well design. Our experiments study the quality of adjacent versus coincident representations of spatial uncertainty as compared to the presentation of data without uncertainty; the representations' quality is assessed in terms of decision accuracy. Our study was conducted within a group of 123 graduate students specialized in geology.
ISSN:0098-3004
1873-7803
DOI:10.1016/j.cageo.2010.08.004