Influence of submonthly air–sea coupling on heavy precipitation events in the Western Mediterranean basin

Heavy precipitation events (HPEs) can be a major cause of damage and casualties in the Mediterranean basin. With the use of atmosphere–ocean coupled regional climate models (AORCMs) and the advantage of 24 years of simulation (1989–2012), we identified regions with potential impact of submonthly air...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 2016-08, Vol.142 (S1), p.453-471
Main Authors: Berthou, Ségolène, Mailler, Sylvain, Drobinski, Philippe, Arsouze, Thomas, Bastin, Sophie, Béranger, Karine, Flaounas, Emmanouil, Lebeaupin Brossier, Cindy, Somot, Samuel, Stéfanon, Marc
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
air–sea coupling
atmosphere–ocean regional climate model
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Climatology
Earth Sciences
heavy precipitation events
Mediterranean
Meteorology
Physics
Sciences of the Universe
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Summary:Heavy precipitation events (HPEs) can be a major cause of damage and casualties in the Mediterranean basin. With the use of atmosphere–ocean coupled regional climate models (AORCMs) and the advantage of 24 years of simulation (1989–2012), we identified regions with potential impact of submonthly air–sea coupling on HPEs from among the regions hit by heavy rain during the Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX) first special observation period (SOP1): Valencia in Spain, the Cévennes in Southern France, Liguria in Northwestern Italy, Calabria in Southern Italy and Northeastern Italy. A first evaluation of the two AORCMs (MORCE and CNRM–RCSM4) against gridded precipitation datasets showed that 70–90% of the 30 most intense HPEs simulated were observed HPEs for most regions. The Cévennes, Valencia and Calabria were the only three regions to show a statistical relationship between rain differences and sea‐surface temperature (SST) differences where the low‐level jets that feed the events most frequently blow. This sensitivity of precipitation to SST changes is due to low‐level wind changes related to changes in surface heat fluxes. Based on the calculation of submonthly variations in these regions during HyMeX, HPEs on 28 September 2012 and 12 October 2012 in Valencia and on 25–26 October 2012 in the Cévennes have most probably been affected by submonthly air–sea coupling.
ISSN:0035-9009
1477-870X
DOI:10.1002/qj.2717