A global analysis of subsidence, relative sea-level change and coastal flood exposure

• Published in: Nature climate change 2021-04, Vol.11 (4), p.338-342
• Main Authors: Nicholls, Robert J., Lincke, Daniel, Hinkel, Jochen, Brown, Sally, Vafeidis, Athanasios T., Meyssignac, Benoit, Hanson, Susan E., Merkens, Jan-Ludolf, Fang, Jiayi
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: 704/106/694/2739; 704/2151/213; Climate Change; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts; Coastal climates; Coastal effects; Coastal flooding; Coastal sediments; Coasts; Earth and Environmental Science; Environment; Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice; Estimates; Floods; Global sea level; Groundwater; Human influences; Land subsidence; Lowlands; Man-induced effects; Policies; Population; Sciences of the Universe; Sea level; Sea level changes; Sea level measurements; Sea level rise; Subsidence; Uplift
• ISSN: 1758-678X; 1758-6798
• DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-00993-z

Climate-induced sea-level rise and vertical land movements, including natural and human-induced subsidence in sedimentary coastal lowlands, combine to change relative sea levels around the world’s coasts. Although this affects local rates of sea-level rise, assessments of the coastal impacts of subsidence are lacking on a global scale. Here, we quantify global-mean relative sea-level rise to be 2.6 mm yr −1 over the past two decades. However, as coastal inhabitants are preferentially located in subsiding locations, they experience an average relative sea-level rise up to four times faster at 7.8 to 9.9 mm yr −1 . These results indicate that the impacts and adaptation needs are much higher than reported global sea-level rise measurements suggest. In particular, human-induced subsidence in and surrounding coastal cities can be rapidly reduced with appropriate policy for groundwater utilization and drainage. Such policy would offer substantial and rapid benefits to reduce growth of coastal flood exposure due to relative sea-level rise. Land subsidence and uplift influence the rate of sea-level rise. Most coastal populations live in subsiding areas and experience average rates of relative sea-level rise three to four times faster than due to climate change alone, indicating the need for policy to address subsidence.