Modeling Page Views Across Multiple Websites with an Application to Internet Reach and Frequency Prediction

In this study, we develop a multivariate generalization of the negative binomial distribution (NBD). This new model has potential application to situations where separate NBDs are correlated, such as for page views across multiple websites. In turn, our page view model is used to predict the audienc...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Marketing science (Providence, R.I.) R.I.), 2007-05, Vol.26 (3), p.422-437
Main Author: Danaher, Peter J
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Advertising
Advertising campaigns
Analysis
Audiences
Binomial distribution
Business studies
Datasets
Demography
Electronic commerce
Empirical modeling
Estimation methods
Internet
Internet marketing
Internet/Web advertising
Marketing
Marketing research
Mathematical models
Maximum likelihood estimation
media
Media planning & buying
Modeling
Multivariate analysis
Online advertising
Parametric models
Poisson distribution
probability models
Studies
Television advertising
Websites
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Description
Summary:In this study, we develop a multivariate generalization of the negative binomial distribution (NBD). This new model has potential application to situations where separate NBDs are correlated, such as for page views across multiple websites. In turn, our page view model is used to predict the audience for Internet advertising campaigns. For very large Internet advertising schedules, a simple approximation to the multivariate model is also derived. In a test of nearly 3,000 Internet advertising schedules, the two new models are compared with some proprietary and nonproprietary models previously used for Internet advertising and are shown to be significantly more accurate.
ISSN:0732-2399
1526-548X
DOI:10.1287/mksc.1060.0226